If you are already worried about your energy bills, then look at this and weep. Forward prices for gas this coming winter are currently 30-40% higher than they were this time last year. Why? Many reasons, but perhaps in 2011-12 the market is expecting our fifth consecutive colder winter in a row?
I think we'd better make this the Chart of the Month for July 2011, a bit ahead of schedule for a change. The source for those who are interested is here, the latest Ofgem market report.
This one hardly requires explanation, just look at the chart. Household CO2 is now greater than the entire transport sector. Bear in mind that the transport sector includes:
All cars, trucks, motorbikes, vans, buses, HGVs, etc
All trains, rolling stock, etc
All domestic civil aviation and aircraft support vehicles
All national shipping and fishing vessels
All military transport
To me that’s astonishing. Add up the total CO2 emissions from all these things, and you come to a lower number than if you add up the emissions from electricity, gas and heating fuel that we use every day in our homes.
A footnote to the statistics maybe, but a footnote with huge implications: residential carbon is set to become the single biggest environmental pollution problem of our time.
"Mr Rooney, we could have saved sixpence. We have saved fivepence. But at what cost?" - All that Fall, 1957
Chart not displaying? Try clicking on the space below, or here.
This month the government published our latest national CO2 statistics. They are quite interesting to look at, you can read the full press release here or just have a quick look at the chart above.
The headline is that CO2 is going in the right direction and everyone is rather pleased. In total we seem to have cut our national carbon footprint by 28%. That's the kind of good news we like to hear, if things are indeed what they seem.
But of course, things are not what they seem. The first big sleight of hand is to have excluded from the data the only 2 major sectors where carbon emissions are growing massively: shipping (up 17% since 1990) and aviation (up 109%). When these are included, the total UK saving falls to 25%.
But 25% is still good right? Well, it sounds good, but what's strange is that a big chunk of this saving (about a third of it, actually, or about 8% points) has been delivered in the last two years. And because the reporting is all a year in arrears, that means between 2007 and 2009. Hmmm. Can anyone think of anything that might have happened from 2007 to 2009 that would have reduced our carbon footprint by about 8%?
So what are we left with? When you include the boats and planes that refuel in the UK and allow for the recession we've just been having, well then you're left with about a 17% saving over 19 years, or about 0.9% per annum. Somehow that doesn't seem so exciting to me.
Here is the data table as published under, I believe, Kyoto reporting agreements. You'll notice it doesn't include shipping and aviation, we had to dig those out of a footnote to come up with the chart above.
Did you know, the Met Office now posts UK weather station data online? It’s pretty easy to rummage around in the numbers, so we've been having a go. Take a look at this, our Carbon Census Chart of the Month for March 2011.
This chart (which is from the Heathrow weather station, but typical of weather stations around the UK) shows three rather strange things, as follows:
First strange thing: our winters have been getting colder. The coldest temp has got colder for 4 years in a row. That's only happened once before at Heathrow since records began.
Second strange thing : our summers have been getting hotter. The hottest temp has got hotter for 3 years in a row, and that's also only happened once before in this dataset
But the third really, really strange thing is that the first two strange things are happening at the same time, which appears to be a genuinely unprecedented event for these isles.
In the past, when there has been any kind of run of warming or cooling in the weather, it has either got warmer for a few years, or got colder for a few years. There is no previous example of the hottest month getting hotter and the coldest month getting colder, for three and four years in a row, in either the Heathrow data since 1948 (plotted above) or in the data from older weather stations such as Oxford which go all the way back to the 1850s. (Take a minute to look at the analysis we've done of the Oxford dataset, if you like this kind of thing you'll get the idea straight away.)
So the next question is, could this be a coincidence? Well perhaps it could, but to answer that question we would need to have a Theory of the Weather. We would need to say something like this: here is how we expect the weather to behave, here is what it's been up to recently, and here is the chance of that happening for no particular reason, i.e. just by fluke. In statistical terms, in other words, we need a null hypothesis.
Of course, we're not meteorologists over here, so we haven't got a Theory of the Weather, so we haven't got a proper null hypothesis. But heck, let's just make one up and see what happens. Let's assume that there are no long term changes in the weather going on, and so the annual high and lo temperatures just bounce around a bit from year to year, with a normal distribution and standard deviation around some long term average value. We know that's not true, exactly, but it's not far off... and here's the interesting observation: if this cartoon model of the weather were true, then the chance of drawing the chart above by fluke would be less than 1 in 100,000.
So on that basis, I'd like to make a wager. I'll wager that this pattern is not a fluke at all, that it's an extremely unusual anomaly in historical terms, and that within 12 months of today someone will publish a peer reviewed article showing that this is the case. And just a hunch, of course, but I also think we'll hear a lot of news this year that climate change is accelerating and the impacts are worse than we thought. Increasing volatility (widening extremes, rather than rising averages) will be the climate change story of 2011.
For those who are interested, the Met Office weather station data can be downloaded here, and the Oxford analysis going back to 1852 is here. Many thanks to Lora Brill who helped me with a previous draft of this article.
For over 30 years now, our partners at BRE have been collecting data on average indoor temperatures in the UK. What they've found is that over time we're heating our homes to higher and higher temperatures, from about 13° C in 1970 to over 20° C in recent years. And all this during a period where the weather, if anything, has been slightly warmer than it used to be.
Of course, one thing that has changed since 1970 is that a lot more people have central heating. So what I like about this chart is that it separates out this effect: all else equal, the chart shows that the spread of central heating would have increased indoor temperatures only to about 15° C by 1970 standards. The rest of the increase (by rough calculation about 70% of it) is just behaviour. We've gone soft!
The Energy Saving Trust says that turning down the thermostat down by 1° C cuts your heating bill by 10% on average. So what we're really seeing here is the long run trend of rising incomes and falling relative costs of energy. Which if you're worried about these things, would get you thinking again about pricing.
The data source ishere for those that are interested.
